Are we missing a very pointed message from one of our biggest investors, economic
partners, and geopolitical rivals?
Recently President Obama received the Dalai Lama into the White House in an attempt
to show that he is widely open and receptive to all religions around the world and
a friend to oppressed people. We also recently entered into an arms deal with Taiwan
that raised the eyebrows of the Chinese. To add to that we have been attempting
to lecture the Chinese about their currency policy and there trade practices. At
the same time we are sending our deficit through the roof and our economy is still
faltering. One has to wonder what the Chinese will do to get our President's attention.
Reading between the lines, recently a front-page story in the state's China Information
News said the record $34bn sale of US bonds in December was a "commendable" move.
The article was republished by the National Bureau of Statistics, showing that the
sentiment is shared in the federal government.
This follows a piece last week in China Daily, the Politburo's voice, citing an
official from the Chinese Academy of Sciences praising the move to "slash" holdings
of US debt. This was published on the same day that President Obama received the
Dalai Lama at the White House, defying protests from Beijing.
China's power is growing so fast that it now feels confident enough to raise the
stakes on a string of festering conflicts with the US. It has threatened to impose
sanctions on any US firm that takes part in a $6.4bn arms deal for Taiwan agreed
by the White House. This is a tougher response that on any previous occasion and
raises this could signal that China is willing to engage in a trade war over Boeing,
the key supplier.
This sentiment is shared by other experts. "Chinese leaders are deploying their
reserves to try and pressure the US to stop haranguing China about its currency
and trade policies, and to back off from interference in its domestic issues," said
professor Eswar Prasad, ex-head of the IMF's China division.
Stephen Jen from BlueGold Capital said Chine is probably moving out of bonds from
many countries as it prepares for a likely 5pc revaluation of its currency in coming
weeks. Other assets might prove better protection against an immediate loss on holdings
This calculated use of China's $2.4 trillion reserves to challenge US foreign policy
does have drawbacks, we are China's biggest customer and challenging us here will
directly affect Chinese exports. Beijing cannot stop accumulating dollars unless
it is willing to let the yuan ride, eroding the margins of its export industry.
Some reserves can be parked in gold or even copper, but liquid commodity markets
are not big enough to absorb the scale of Chinese surpluses. Of course as the Chinese
economy grows and becomes the largest economy on the planet, the picture changes
dramatically. It is predicted that this will be the case by 2040, so we should be
paying attention.
However, our President seems oblivious to the obvious, if you poke the dragon you
are liable to get singed. If the Chinese decide that they would like to send us
a message this is probably a fast and easy way to do it. Unfortunately for the US
economy we don't seem to be listening to the potential pit falls. If we don't clean
up our fiscal policy fast we leave ourselves exposed not only to the dragon but
to every other country that is holding our paper.